Outlook on the economic operation of China's machi

2022-08-21
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Outlook on the economic operation of China's machinery industry in 2016

in 2015, under the background of the complex world economic environment and the increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy, the machinery industry conscientiously implemented the central government's work requirements of "stabilizing growth and adjusting structure", and worked hard to move forward under pressure. The economic growth rate of the whole industry slowed down, but the main economic indicators still achieved positive growth; Under the guidance of market forces and policies, the pace of structural adjustment has been accelerated and the intensity of transformation and upgrading has increased

looking forward to 2016, there is still great downward pressure on the development of the industry, and there are still many difficulties and problems, but confidence and determination are still there. The machinery industry will fully implement the spirit of the 18th CPC National Congress and the third, fourth and fifth plenary sessions of the 18th CPC Central Committee, conscientiously implement the decisions and arrangements of the central economic work conference, take the implementation of made in China 2025 as the starting point, take the market as the guide, take enterprises as the main body, take innovation as the fundamental, and promote the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, cost reduction and efficiency increase of the machinery industry on the basis of maintaining the steady development of the machinery industry, Strive to achieve the healthy development of the industry

the growth rate of the machinery industry fell significantly in 2015

the growth rate of the main economic indicators of the machinery industry fell significantly in 2015, and the development speed was lower than the industrial average level. In 2015, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 5.5% year-on-year, 4.5 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the previous year, and 0.6 percentage points lower than the national average industrial growth rate (6.1%) in the same period. The growth rate of added value of machinery industry is lower than the national average growth rate, which is rare in recent years, highlighting the seriousness of the industry situation

the growth rate of the main business income of the machinery industry also fell significantly. In 2015, the machinery industry achieved a cumulative main business income of 22.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.32% over the previous year, and the growth rate fell by 6.09 percentage points over the previous year, but was 2.52 percentage points higher than the national industrial growth rate (0.8%) in the same period

at the same time, the output of 70% of products decreased, and only 30% of products increased. Among the 64 major mechanical products released by the National Bureau of statistics in 2015, only 18 increased in output, accounting for 28.13%, and 46 decreased in output, accounting for 71.87%. The specific analysis shows that the output of products with large investment samples slipping and breaking in the fixture, such as metallurgical mining equipment, engineering machinery, conventional power generation equipment, and common mechanical products with serious overcapacity, such as all kinds of common machine tools, AC motors, wires and cables, has decreased significantly; The output of high-power tractors, instruments and meters, environmental protection equipment and instruments, electric forklifts, wind power generation equipment, sports multipurpose passenger vehicles (SUVs) in automobiles and other products closely related to consumption, people's livelihood, energy conservation and emission reduction, and industrial upgrading has maintained growth

according to the data, the output of CNC machine tools was 235000, a year-on-year decrease of 9.53%. The output of large tractors was 77400, an increase of 33% year-on-year. The output of power generation equipment was 110million kW, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, but maintained the output of more than 100million kW for 10 consecutive years. The production and sales of automobiles were 24.5033 million and 24.5976 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.25% and 4.68% respectively. The production and sales of both exceeded 24.5 million, hitting a new record, ranking first in the world for the seventh consecutive year

in 2015, the economic benefit growth rate of the machinery industry was lower than that of the main business income, and the loss making enterprises and the amount of losses increased. The total profit of the whole year was 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.46% over the previous year, and the growth rate fell by 8.15 percentage points over the previous year, 0.86 percentage points lower than the growth rate of main business income in the same period. The profit margin of main business income was 6.96%, down 0.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The total tax revenue of the whole year was 886.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.08% over the previous year; The loss rate of enterprises was 12.82%, an increase of 2.85 percentage points over the previous year; The loss of loss making enterprises increased by 19.29%

in 2015, the foreign trade of machinery industry showed a downward trend of deceleration, with a total import and export volume of 666.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.13%. Among them, the import was 277.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14.06%; Exports reached 388.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.36%, showing a rare negative growth since the international financial crisis in 2009. The annual trade surplus hit a record high of $111billion

in 2015, the machinery industry completed a total fixed asset investment of 4.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than the fixed asset investment of the whole society, and 1.6 percentage points higher than the manufacturing industry. Compared with the growth rate of the machinery industry last year, it fell by 3.02 percentage points, and the growth rate has fallen for four consecutive years

the overcapacity of middle and low-end products and insufficient market demand have led to the decline of orders and low prices of mechanical products. In 2015, the accumulated orders of key associated enterprises in the machinery industry continued the weak trend of the previous year, and the growth rate further fell, and the year-on-year growth was always negative. From January to December, the cumulative year-on-year decline was 4.02%. It is expected that the sluggish demand in the future is still one of the important challenges facing the machinery industry

the price index of machinery industry products continued the trend of low operation last year. By the end of 2015, the cumulative price index of machinery products had been below 100% for 48 consecutive months. Among the 142 major mechanical products, 103 have a year-on-year decrease in the cumulative price index, accounting for 72.5%

the development of the machinery industry during the 12th Five Year Plan period

during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the scale of the machinery industry further expanded, but the growth rate of major indicators continued to decline. In terms of scale, the total assets increased from 10.97 trillion yuan in 2010 to 19.27 trillion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate fell from an average annual growth rate of 23.55% in the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" to an average annual growth rate of 11.91%

in terms of output, the main business income increased from 13.96 trillion yuan in 2010 to 22.98 trillion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate fell from an average annual growth rate of 27.9% in the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" to an average annual growth rate of 10.48%

in terms of benefits, the total profit increased from 1.17 trillion yuan in 2010 to 1.6 trillion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate fell from an average annual growth rate of more than 30% in the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" to an average annual growth rate of 6.45%

in terms of foreign trade, the total export volume increased from US $258.5 billion in 2010 to US $388.8 billion in 2015, with an average annual growth of 8.51%; The trade surplus increased 35 times from US $3.136 billion in 2010 to US $111 billion in 2015

with the transition from the junior middle stage to the middle and late stage of industrialization, the development of machinery industry has entered a new period of more gentle growth in the future

different from the overall and rapid growth during the "Tenth Five Year Plan" and "Eleventh Five Year Plan", the market demand structure of each sub industry of the machinery industry has changed in the late stage of the "Twelfth Five Year Plan", and the main sign of the change is the intensification of differentiation

during the 12th Five Year Plan period, products or industries related to people's livelihood and consumption grew rapidly. Taking the growth rate of main business income and profit as an example, the products and industries that are higher than the average level of the whole industry mainly include sports utility vehicles (SUVs), food packaging machinery, agricultural machinery, instrumentation, environmental protection machinery, etc. However, industries mainly driven by investment have gradually declined. Taking the growth rate of main business income and profit as an example, the industries that are lower than the average level of the whole industry are mainly engineering machinery, petrochemical general, heavy mining, and metal cutting machine tools. These industries are typical investment product industries in the machinery industry. The automobile industry also shows the same trend of "rising consumer sub industries and declining investment"

during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the production and marketing situation of industries related to intelligence and green is relatively good. The instrumentation industry, which is closely related to automation, informatization and intelligent manufacturing, has maintained a rapid growth rate. The situation of UHV transmission and transformation equipment in the electrical industry is obviously better than that of conventional products; The situation of pumped storage units is better than that of conventional hydropower units; The situation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment is better than that of conventional power generation equipment

the above changes reflect that under the background of accelerating the adjustment of China's economic structure, the proportion of secondary industry tends to decline and the proportion of tertiary industry increases, the machinery industry has gradually adapted to the changes in the market demand structure, and is gradually shifting from mainly serving investment activities to paying more attention to and tapping the needs of consumption, people's livelihood and informatization, energy conservation and emission reduction and other fields

under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the ability of machinery enterprises to actively adapt to market changes continued to improve, the endogenous development momentum continued to increase, and the adjustment of industrial structure continued to advance

independent research and development achievements are frequent. Breakthroughs have been made in the independent research and development of high-end equipment: successful independent research and development of high-end equipment such as large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, UHV AC and DC and flexible DC transmission and transformation equipment, key equipment for oil and gas long-distance pipelines, and key equipment for large-scale coal chemical industry. The successful development and engineering application of 350MW supercritical boiler burning Zhundong coal is of great significance to the economic development of Xinjiang

the localization of high-end control systems has achieved gratifying results: the localization of DCS control systems for process industries, which have been subject to import for a long time, has achieved results, and the market share of domestic DCS systems has surpassed that of foreign-funded products, and has the strength to participate in international competition

the development of the "Three Basics" field continues to advance. Progress has been made in the localization of a number of key basic components and core parts that have long relied on imports. The localization level of high-voltage insulating bushings, transformer outgoing devices, high-quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheets, large power station forgings, high-temperature blades of gas turbines, large nuclear power static sealing devices, high-pressure valves supporting excavators, high-end bearings, LNG low-temperature and high-pressure cast ball valves, etc. has been significantly improved

innovation helps development. Attention has been paid to the construction of industrial innovation capacity. The investment in basic tests and test capacity construction has increased significantly under the specified state conditioning conditions, temperature, humidity and strain rate. Progress has been made in the construction of basic test and detection platforms that restrict the research and development of new products. Large compressor test platforms, water turbine model test platforms, power station safety valve test platforms and other platforms have been built one after another, A few fields (such as high current and high voltage test capabilities) have reached the advanced level of their counterparts in the world

the pace of collaborative innovation has accelerated. The cooperation between machinery enterprises and user enterprises and scientific research institutes in the fields of equipment R & D and process innovation is closer and more frequent. The cooperation mode brings forth new ideas through innovation, and the cooperative research and development has achieved remarkable results

in addition, private enterprises have made increasing contributions to the development of the industry. In 2015, private enterprises achieved a main business income of 13.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.48% year-on-year, 3.16 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of the whole machinery industry, accounting for 59.05% of the main business income of the machinery industry, which increased by 7.79 percentage points compared with 2010; The total profit achieved was 886billion yuan, accounting for 55.4% of the profits achieved in the machinery industry, an increase of 8.94 percentage points over 2010

during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the regional structure of the machinery industry continued to adjust to the expected direction of the policy. In 2015, the main business income of the eastern, central and western regions accounted for 65.02%, 24.02% and 10.96% of the total income of the machinery industry respectively, of which the proportion of the central and western regions increased by 5.52 percentage points over 2010; Among the total profits, the proportion of the central and western regions also increased from 30.82% in 2010 to 33.29% in 2015

during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the machinery industry slowed down year by year, falling from 30.35% in 2010 to 9.7% in 2015, indicating that the trend of rapid expansion in the early stage of the industry has slowed down significantly. At the same time, the investment structure has improved. In 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of investment in reconstruction and technological transformation was 9.02 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of industry investment. In terms of proportion, the investment in reconstruction and technological transformation accounted for 27.9% of the total investment in the machinery industry in 2015, accounting for 2

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