Outlook of fixed asset investment in 2013

2022-08-15
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Outlook for fixed asset investment in 2013

the overall growth rate of fixed asset investment stabilized

from January to November 2012, the whole society realized 32.6 trillion yuan of fixed asset investment, an increase of 20.7% over the same period in 2011, and the actual growth after deducting price factors was about 19%. Compared with the beginning of the year, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of fixed investment completed since the third quarter has basically stabilized, and the actual growth rate has rebounded slightly, but it is still lower than the average level of 21.1% from 2001 to 2011. In terms of new projects, the number of new projects started in 2012 was 331000, slightly lower than that in 2011, but the total planned investment scale of new projects reached 28.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 28.8% compared with 2011, which means that the investment scale of a single new project continues to rise. Month by month, since June, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of new projects has become positive, and the growth rate of the planned total investment of the project has also gradually rebounded. The number of new projects and chemical reactions at the end of the year can ensure the stability of this kind of hydrogel, and the year-on-year growth rate of the planned total investment has exceeded 35%

the growth rate of fixed asset investment in different regions continued to differentiate

from January to November 2012, the eastern region completed an investment of 15.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 18% over the same period last year; The central region completed 9.2 trillion yuan of investment, an increase of 26.2% year-on-year; The western region completed an investment of 7.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.2% year on year. Compared with the growth level of the same period in 2011, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in the eastern, central and western regions decreased by 3.7, 2.7 and 5 percentage points respectively from January to November. From the perspective of specific provinces and cities, from January to November 2012, the fixed asset investment in Guangdong, Beijing and Shanghai increased by 10.2%, 6.3% and 5% year-on-year respectively, significantly lower than the national average level of 20.7% in the same period, and decreased by 6.5, 7.6 and 5.2 percentage points respectively compared with the average level in the past 10 years; Affected by the acceleration of infrastructure construction, the adjustment of manufacturing layout and the development of housing industry to second and third tier cities, the investment growth rate in the central and western regions continues to maintain a high level

the growth rate of investment in extractive industry and manufacturing industry fell significantly

since the beginning of 2012, the profit situation of manufacturing industry has declined significantly due to the double squeeze of slow sales growth and continuous rising costs. Coupled with the rapid expansion of production capacity in steel, petrochemical, textile, chemical fiber and other industries in previous years, the current willingness of enterprises to continue to increase investment is not strong. From January to November 2012, the manufacturing industry completed 11.3 trillion yuan of fixed asset investment in the whole year, an increase of 22.8% over the same period in 2011, and the growth rate decreased by 8.8 percentage points year-on-year. However, the investment growth in different sub sectors of the manufacturing sector showed obvious differentiation. Specifically, there are two types of industries that maintain a high growth rate of fixed asset investment: first, agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, beverages, furniture, medicine, chemical industry, automobile, etc., which are closely related to domestic consumption. From January to November, the year-on-year growth rate of the above industries reached or exceeded 30%; The second is the equipment manufacturing industry related to industrial upgrading (for example, general, special and instrumentation machinery) From January to November, the growth rate of such industries was close to or more than 35%. At the same time, there are two types of industries whose investment growth rate has significantly declined or continues to maintain a low level: first, consumer goods manufacturing with a high degree of export-oriented, such as textile and clothing, chemical fiber and other industries. These industries have been impacted by the decline in external demand, and the growth rate of investment has declined significantly; Second, industries that provide bulk raw materials or intermediate investment products, such as steel and non-ferrous metals. Due to the rapid expansion of production capacity and high inventory level in the early stage, enterprises are not willing to invest, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment is low

due to sluggish downstream demand and enterprise destocking, the prices of crude oil, copper, rebar, coal and other bulk commodities have fallen since the second quarter of 2012, and the speed of capacity expansion in the extractive industry has slowed significantly. From January to November 2012, the mining industry completed a total fixed asset investment of 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.2% over the same period in 2011, and the growth rate decreased by 9.2 percentage points. Especially in the coal industry, the year-on-year growth rate of investment fell to single digits (8.7%), about 17 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year

in 2012, affected by the reduction of new construction of affordable housing, the downturn of commercial housing market and high financing costs, the growth rate of real estate investment gradually slowed down throughout the year. From January to November 2012, the national real estate development investment completed a total of 6.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.7% year-on-year. Among them, residential, office buildings, commercial and business houses and other types of houses have completed investment of 4.46 trillion yuan, 1.14 trillion yuan and 872.5 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 11.9%, 28.7% and 29.6% respectively compared with the same period in 2011. From the analysis of the changes in the structure of new real estate investment, the significant decline in the growth of housing investment is the main factor for the slowdown in the growth of real estate investment. From January to November 2012, the proportion of residential investment increment in the total real estate investment increment fell to 51%, while the average water polymethylene carbonate (PTMC) in the previous four years was 71.8%. In addition, the peak of new construction area of affordable housing has passed, and its supporting effect on the whole housing may also be weaker than that in the same period of 2011

the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded significantly

in 2012, infrastructure investment continued to play the role of counter cyclical economic stability. From January to November, a total of 7.65 trillion yuan of fixed asset investment was completed in the infrastructure sector, an increase of nearly 20% over the same period in 2011, and the growth rate rebounded significantly. Among them, compared with the 22.4% decline in railway investment in 2011, the railway investment level in 2012 was basically the same as that in the same period last year; Highway investment increased by 24.4%, and the growth rate increased by about 18 percentage points compared with the same period last year. With the fall of coal prices, large-scale losses of power enterprises have changed, and the growth rate of power investment has rebounded significantly from last year. From January to November 2012, the growth rate increased by 16%, nearly 11 percentage points higher than that of the same period in 2011

excluding the base effect, the rebound in the growth rate of infrastructure investment is also closely related to the easing of liquidity bottlenecks. In 2012, the growth rate of various loan balances remained at about 15%, but the growth rate of medium - and long-term loan balances reached 23%. This shows that in order to ensure the smooth progress of infrastructure projects and prevent the occurrence of uncompleted projects or half of sub projects, banks (quotation zone) have increased the credit supply for medium and long-term projects. In addition, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds has increased significantly on the basis of 2011. At the end of 2012, the unexpired scale of urban investment bonds increased to 2437.3 billion yuan, with a new balance of more than 1trillion yuan within one year, equivalent to 40% of the new medium and long-term credit in the same period, compared with only 12% in 2011

overall, since the second half of 2012, the growth rate of fixed investment has gradually stabilized. Among them, investment in infrastructure has played an important supporting role, and its growth rate has rebounded significantly compared with the same period in 2011. The significant decline in the growth rate of residential investment is the main reason for the slowdown in the growth rate of real estate investment. However, as office and commercial real estate investment continue to maintain a high growth rate, the overall growth rate of real estate development investment has slowed down. At the same time, due to the relatively weak real estate investment and export situation, and the high inventory of manufacturing and mining products, the growth rate of enterprise profits fell significantly. Affected by this, the overall investment growth in manufacturing and extractive industries has slowed down significantly, and it is unlikely to rebound significantly in the short term

compared with 2012, the growth rate of fixed asset investment is flat or slightly increased

in 2013, the growth rate of fixed asset investment is expected to be roughly the same as that in 2012 or slightly increased. On the one hand, the monthly growth rate of CPI (converted to an annual rate) has been continuously maintained at about 2%. Most primary products are in sufficient inventory, and domestic inflationary pressure is not prominent in the short term, leaving more room for stable monetary policy and active fiscal policy, and the external capital constraints on fixed investment are expected to continue to ease. On the other hand, there are obvious signs of economic growth stabilizing. GDP and industrial growth have rebounded slightly in the fourth quarter of 2012, corporate profits have improved, and investment growth in Pro cyclical industries such as real estate and manufacturing will further stabilize or rebound. In 2013, if the control target is set according to moderate inflation (3% - 3.5%) and high growth rate (about 8%), and taking into account the rapid development of the direct financing market and the expected improvement to a certain extent, the appropriate scale of new RMB credit is expected to be about 9trillion yuan. Correspondingly, the growth rate of fixed asset investment should be around 21%

the steady growth of commercial housing sales will drive the rebound of the growth rate of real estate investment.

in the second half of 2012, the sales of commercial housing across the country continued to improve, real estate prices stabilized and rebounded significantly, and the recovery of the real estate market was basically established. All major real estate enterprises have exceeded the annual sales targets issued at the beginning of the year, the financial situation of enterprises has improved, and their willingness to purchase land and increase investment has further increased. In terms of external financing, real estate trusts and corporate bonds are expected to play a more important role in 2013, in addition to bank credit, against the backdrop of the overall stability of monetary policy and the encouragement of the development of direct financing markets. The continuous promotion of real estate enterprises' participation in the construction of affordable housing also helps to alleviate the financial pressure. Based on the above analysis, according to the relationship between external financing, commercial housing sales and real estate development investment, the rebound in the growth rate of real estate development investment will not be reversed in the short term. The annual investment level in 2013 is expected to reach about 22%, which is higher than the growth rate in 2012

the growth rate of manufacturing investment will gradually stabilize

in 2013, the internal and external constraints faced by manufacturing investment will be eased, and the continuous slowing investment growth rate is expected to gradually stabilize. First of all, since the fourth quarter of 2012, driven by the rebound in the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment, the demand situation of manufacturing products has improved, the capital situation of inventory occupation and accounts receivable occupation has improved, and the profit has increased year-on-year. Moreover, this trend continues. Secondly, the tightening of macro-control has been adjusted in 2012, and the liquidity tension has been alleviated to a certain extent. Since the third quarter of 2012, with the central bank gradually increasing its open market operations, the year-on-year growth rate of corporate financial expenses (especially interest expenses) has gradually declined. The situation of enterprises squeezed by the slow growth of sales and the continuous rise of costs has gradually changed

however, the structural differentiation of manufacturing investment growth will continue. Some industries that have experienced high-speed expansion or high degree of export-oriented in previous years, such as steel, petrochemical, textile, chemical fiber, etc., will face greater uncertainty if they continue to increase investment. The consumer goods manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry related to domestic demand upgrading and industrial transfer may maintain stable growth. To sum up, the overall investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry in 2013 will gradually stabilize, and is expected to remain at about 20%

for the extractive industry, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the industry slowed down significantly in 2012 due to the sluggish downstream demand and destocking. In 2013, this situation will improve. It is unlikely that inventories in some industries such as steel will continue to fall sharply in the short term, and the space for commodity prices to continue to fall is limited, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to increase investment will increase. The annual investment in the extractive industry is estimated to increase by 10% - 15%

the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to be basically the same as that in 2012.

from the situation in the second half of 2012, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds has expanded and the proportion of medium and long-term loans has increased, indicating that banks and market investors are interested in infrastructure construction

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